User's Guide to a new, updated and enriched TYNDP for electricity

“Make it more synthetic, easier to read, and all-in-one!” (practically, all surveyed TYNDP stakeholders)

What is the TYNDP, and what is its role in the European energy policy governance?

Grid development is the core instrument for achieving the Energy Union goals. All Europeans aspire to more security of supply, affordable energy prices and sustainable development.

The 10-year network development plan (TYNDP) that ENTSO-E publishes every two year presents how to develop the power grid in the next 15 years so that it can effectively contribute to achieving these different and sometimes competing goals.

The TYNDP is the outcome of a two-years process, starting with the development of scenarios or visions of how the European power system might look in 2030. Over 200 experts Europe-wide carried out regional exploration studies¹, pan-European analyses and assess projects to reinforce the grid submitted throuh a European wide call for candidatures .

The present publication complies with the requirements of Regulation (EC) 714/2009, which tasks ENTSO-E with developing a non-binding Community-wide 10-year network development plan, aimed at providing a vision of the extra-high voltage grid in 10-15 year time; and Regulation (EU) 347/2013, making the TYNDP the sole basis for the selection of PCIs.

What is the link between the TYNDP and the selection of PCIs?

The Regulation (EU) No 347/2013 that the PCIs are selected from the TYNDP list of transmission and storage projects. It is the European Commission and not ENTSO-E who selects and adopts the list of PCIs. The PCIs follow a separate process from that of the TYNDP. ²

Annex III 2(3) of Regulation (EU) 347/2013 on guidelines for trans-European energy infrastructure stipulates that “…for all … Union lists adopted, proposed electricity transmission and storage projects … shall be part of the latest available 10-year network development plan for electricity, developed by the ENTSO for Electricity …”

This means that a promoter willing to have a project labelled as a PCI first needs to apply for the project to be included in ENTSO-E’s TYNDP. For example only projects which are listed in this TYNDP 2016 will be considered by the Commission for its 2017 PCIs list.

Regulation (EC) 714/2009 on conditions for access to the network for cross-border exchanges in electricity -defining the ENSTO-E legal mandates- gives to the TYNDP a wider scope: to provide a transparent picture of the European electricity transmission network to support decision-makers with regard to grid investment at regional and European level.

The PCI process is led by the EC.

Please visit the EC website for information on how to apply for the PCIs.

How are projects assessed?

Each project included in the TYNDP is assessed using the pan-European CBA methodology. As such the benefit of each TYNDP project is assessed against nine indicators ranging from socio-economic welfare to environmental impact.

Transmission projects are by their nature multi-purpose. Originally, the main goal of cross-border electricity interconnections was to contribute to security of supply. Interconnectors were built to allow for mutual support in case of supply disruptions, thereby ensuring the reliability of electricity supply. Their role in improving social welfare has received growing attention over the last 20 years. More recently, and given the ambitious renewable-energy and CO2 targets of the EU, the integration of electricity from RES and CO2 mitigation appear as new motives for transmission projects. The majority of TYNDP projects contribute to all indicators, proving this multi-purpose characteristic of transmission projects.

The scheme below shows the main categories that group the indicators used to assess the impact of projects.

Some projects will provide all the benefit categories, whereas other projects will only contribute significantly to one or two of them. Other benefits, such as benefits for competition, also exist. These are more difficult to model, and are not explicitly taken into account.

The benefits indicators are:

• B1. Improved security of supply (SoS) is the ability of a power system to provide an adequate and secure supply of electricity under ordinary conditions.
• B2. Socio-economic welfare (SEW) or market integration is characterised by the ability of a power system to reduce congestion and thus provide an adequate GTC so that electricity markets can trade power in an economically efficient manner.
• B3. RES integration: Support to RES integration is defined as the ability of the system to allow the connection of new RES plants and unlock existing and future “green” generation, while minimising curtailments.
• B4. Variation in losses in the transmission grid is the characterisation of the evolution of thermal losses in the power system. It is an indicator of energy efficiency and is correlated with SEW.
• B5. Variation in CO2 emissions: is the characterisation of the evolution of CO2 emissions in the power system. It is a consequence of B3 (unlock of generation with lower carbon content).
• B6. Technical resilience/system safety is the ability of the system to withstand increasingly extreme system conditions (exceptional contingencies).
• B7. Flexibility is the ability of the proposed reinforement to be adequate in different possible future development paths or scenarios, including trade of balancing services.
• S.1. Environmental impact characterises the project impact as assessed through preliminary studies, and aims at giving a measure of the environmental sensitivity associated with the project.
• S.2.Social impact characterises the project impact on the (local) population that is affected by the project as assessed through preliminary studies, and aims at giving a measure of the social sensitivity associated with the project.

Detailes explanations about each of the indicators and the way costs are taken into acount are available in the [ENTSO-E Guideline for Cost Benefit Analysis of Grid Development Projects] (https://www.entsoe.eu/Documents/SDC%20documents/TYNDP/ENTSO-E%20cost%20benefit%20analysis%20approved%20by%20the%20European%20Commission%20on%204%20February%202015.pdf). Important information relating to the CBA can be found in:

• Cost Benefit Analysis Methodology – Frequently Asked Questions, and
• Cost Benefit Analysis Methodology – Key Issues

[both available on this page] (https://www.entsoe.eu/major-projects/ten-year-network-development-plan/CBA-Methodology/Pages/default.aspx)

What is new in the TYNDP 2016?

The TYNDP 2016 builds on the 2014 release, paving the way to the Energy Union 2030 goals set up in October 2014; accounting for the feedback received from stakeholders, especially DG ENER and ACER through consultations, public workshops, bilateral meetings and regular meeting of the Network Development Stakeholder Group (NDSG); and, on this basis, further improving methodologies and contents. Notwithstanding the usual analyses, from investment needs identification to transmission adequacy assessments, the main improvements are:

• five scenarios are investigated, with four 2030 “Visions” comparable in main storyline to those of the TYNDP 2014 but refocused to the EU 2030 goals, updated with various evolutions, and designed with new methodologies; as well as a new 2020 “Expected Progress” scenario.
• Thanks to dedicated public workshops, the CBA methodologies have been complemented with more transparent rules to define the reference grid for projects assessments.
• The TYNDP 2016 projects list has been set throughout a public process from March to October 2016 under the aegis of the EC, and the active supervision of the NDSG, acting as ethical committee³.
• The NDSG has also suggested making project assessment sheets more relevant to local communities, with maps of every project in its local environment and links to complementary national information.
• Project promoters have been invited to complete the ENTSO-E CBA results with their own information and comments to build self-supporting projects assessment sheets and better support the establishment of the 3rd PCI list.
• In addition, prior to investigating grid development issues, power system profitability and operational concerns by 2030 are analysed in a dedicated section of the report.

Although the TYNDP remains a heavy package in its entirety, every page or section is meant to be read stand-alone, and the reader is invited to browse the TYNDP webpage, flip through the reports and focus on the parts that trigger his or her interest.

What is in the TYNDP package?

The core of the TYNDP package is the result of the assessment of each transmission or storage project in Europe. See the section below “How to read a project sheet” for more details on this.

The TYNDP and the economic and technical studies performed to produce it generate a great quantity of valuable information on the future of the European power system. Along with the project assessment themselves, these results form the basis of the “TYNDP package” which Executive Summary you are reading now. This package is also composed of several insight reports which provide further regional analysis for key areas and allow to go further on the topics described below.

Stakeholder engagement

The TYNDP is a collective exercise. The quality of its output very much depends on ENTSO-E's ability to engage as early and as extensively as possible with all parties that have an interest in how the power grid is designed. Learn how ENTSO-E did it in 2016 and how it plans to increase participation in 2018.

Future system perspectives

Where does one start to plan network development 15 years ahead? How to make sure the assumptions used are realistic and at the same time future-looking enough? How to broaden the scope of possibilities but maintain a sufficient level of feasibility? Learn how long-term grid planning is done in the TYNDP.

A push for Projects of Common Interest

Why does Europe need an infrastructure push even with more local generation, storage and demand response? Is European regulation on infrastructure delivering its promise? What could be done differently to ease the building of priority projects?

Technologies for transmission system

Current advances in technology offer project promoters many opportunities to implement new solutions to cope with future network development, that is defined in the TYNDP. Together with current technologies, innovative technologies will be incorporated with the existing infrastructure. These technologies have their own learning curves and innovation cycles. Project promoters, regulators and policy makers need to understand something of each technology and their availability by the time of project development.

Viability of the energy mix

The energy mix has been and is facing significant changes accross Europe, with a signficant increase of production of electricity from renewable sources. While it leads to significant reduction of CO2 emissions of the power sector, it creates some additional challenges both from the technical and economic point of view, which are described further in this Insight Report.

The link between system adequacy and the TYNDP

Are there risks to Europe's pan-European adequacy in the next 5 to 10 years? Why is it important to assess adequacy at a pan-European scale? What methodology is ENTSO-E using and does it cater for the rapid change in Europe's generation mix?

Data and expertise as key ingredients

The TYNDP is an open process. This report will give you the list of data sources and tools used by the ENTSO-E experts to make the TYNDP and what you can freely access to support your own research.

Focus on the Nordic and Baltic Sea

Looking at what is driving grid development in the Nordic and Baltic Sea region: integration of the Baltic power systems, enabling North to South power flows? Impact of planned nuclear decommissioning in Sweden and Finland?

North Seas - regional planning

What congestions is the TYNDP tackling in the North Seas region? What progress for the North Sea Offshore Grid? What about a new long term West-East corridor?

North-South interconnections in Western Europe - regional planning

How to plan a grid to manage the connection of large renewable plants in the North and in the South? How to move large quantities of renewables accross long distances? See how the energy transition is a game changing network development in Western Europe.

North-South Interconnections in Central-East and South-East Europe

Building power bridges between Eastern and Western Europe; relieving the bottlenecks in Central Europe; see what grid development the Central East and the South East regions are facing.

Baltic Synchronisation

How to integrate further the Baltic countries in the European power system? What about the desynchronisation with the Russian power system? What infrastructure solutions for a secure and competitive Baltic power system? What other ENTSO-E publications are necessary to get a full picture?

The Cost Benefit Analysis Methodology and other related documents

The TYNDP builds on other documents which are published along the two years process. These documents are therefore not part of this final TYNDP package, but are necessary to get a full picture and dive into how ENTSO-E obtains the TYNDP results.

As requested by the Regulation (EU) No 347/2013, ENTSO-E elaborated a Cost Benefits Analysis (CBA) methodology to assess the transmission and storage infrastructure projects included in the TYNDP (see section above on projects assessment).

The CBA was drafted by ENTSO-E after consultation with stakeholders. It was then sent to ACER and the European Commission for opinion and to member states for information. Following the opinions received, the CBA methodology was revised and finally adopted by the Commission in early 2015.

The Scenario Development Report:

This Scenario Development Report (submitted to public consultation in summer 2015) explores possible future situations of load and generation, interacting with the pan-European electricity system. These scenarios are the baseline on which TYNDP2016 projects have been assessed. The report aims at providing insights on how the scenarios have been developed and how infrastructure needs are linked to choices in future energy policies.

The Regional Investment Plans

The six ENTSO-E Regional Investment Plans were developed from September 2014 to June 2015 as part of the TYNDP 2016. These reports include the main infrastructure challenges and needs of every region in Europe by 2030. They were consulted during summer 2015 and the final versions can be accessed below.

• Regional Investment Plan 2015 North Sea region — FINAL
• Regional Investment Plan 2015 Continental South West region — FINAL
• Regional Investment Plan 2015 Continental South East region — FINAL
• Regional Investment Plan 2015 Continental Central South region — FINAL
• Regional Investment Plan 2015 Continental Central East region — FINAL
• Regional Investment Plan 2015 Baltic Sea region — FINAL
• TYNDP 2016 – Consultation review of Project Candidate list and Regional Investment Plans 2015

How to read a project assessment sheet?

Project sheets contain everything there is to know about each transmission or storage project in Europe which applied to the TYNDP. You can access to all project sheets at once, or visit ENTSO-E’s interactive map and click on any project to access its project sheet.

Each project sheet contains the following information:

• A general description of the project, and a map
• Information about each investment in the project, including the length of transmission line, the contribution of the investment to the project gross transfer capacity, the current status of the investment, and the status in previous TYNDPs.
• Information about which investment needs are fulfilled by the project
• Detailed results of the Cost Benefit Analysis, as well as an explanation of how to interpret these results.

¹. See Scenario Development Report 2015, providing the detailed description of the TYNDP 2016 scenarios; and the six Regional Investment Plans 2015, depicting more thoroughly the various investment needs for grid development in the coming future. link ↩

². In total 172 transmission projects have been submitted and found compliant with the EC's draft guidelines, of which 15 were also promoted by non-ENTSO-E members. link ↩